DAO 50:199-209 (2002)  -  doi:10.3354/dao050199

ABSTRACT: White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) is devastating shrimp aquaculture throughout the world, but despite its economic importance no work has been done on modeling epidemics of this pathogen. Therefore we developed a Reed-Frost epidemic model for WSSV in Litopenaeus vannamei. The model includes uninfected susceptible, latently infected, acutely infected, and dead infected shrimp. The source of new infections during an outbreak is considered to be dead infected shrimp. The transmission coefficient, patency coefficient, virulence coefficient, and removal coefficient (disappearance of dead infected shrimp) control the dynamics of the model. In addition, an explicit area parameter is included to help to clarify the distinction between density and absolute shrimp population size. An analysis of the model finds that as number of shrimp, initial dose, transmission coefficient, patency coefficient, virulence coefficient, or removal coefficient changes, the speed of the epidemic changes. The model predicts that a threshold density of susceptible shrimp exists below which an outbreak of WSSV will not occur. Only initial dose, transmission coefficient, removal coefficient, and area coefficient affect the predicted threshold density. Increases in the transmission coefficient reduce the threshold value, whereas increases in the other factors cause the threshold value to increase. Epidemic models may prove useful to the shrimp aquaculture industry by suggesting testable hypotheses, some of which may contribute to the eventual control of WSSV outbreaks.

KEY WORDS: WSSV · Epidemic model · White spot syndrome virus · Epidemiology · Shrimp disease