CR 12:153-160 (1999)  -  doi:10.3354/cr012153

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO₂ concentration level (winter wheat is a C₃ crop, while maize is a C₄ crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO₂ general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO₂ concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m^-2, and increasing fertilization levels.

KEY WORDS: Romania · Winter wheat · Maize · Baseline · GCM outputs · Carbon dioxide · Models · Adaptation option