CR 17:73-82 (2001)  -  doi:10.3354/cr017073

ABSTRACT: Interannual variability of temperature in the Kola section (Barents Sea) and the abundance as 0-group (age 5 mo) and recruits (age 3 yr), spawning stock biomass, and survival of Arcto-Norwegian cod in the Barents Sea were related to climate variability using a multivariate regression model. The results show that in the Barents Sea the temperature anomalies are significantly and highly correlated to climate variables such as large-scale sea-level pressure fields and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. A significant and high correlation was detected between the temperature in the Barents Sea and both the 0-group index and recruitment of Arcto-Norwegian cod. A phase lag of 2 yr appears in recruitment. The high model skill and excellent correlation indicate that it is possible to predict the future development of Arcto-Norwegian cod stocks from climate-change scenarios.

KEY WORDS: Climate variability · Cod recruitment · Barents Sea · Multivariate statistics