CR 38:249-260 (2009)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00785

ABSTRACT: Rice production in India is highly correlated with monsoon rainfall. The relationships between rainfall variation and rice production have attracted significant interest at a country scale in Asia, but regional differences within a country remain unclear. In this study, we examined the effects of rainfall variation on ‘kharif’ rice (rainy season rice)—including temporal changes in this relationship—in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin, using a statistical model and a district-level data series of rice production and rainfall. Three homogeneous regions were identified within the study area. In the upper Ganges, the drought effect on rice production was dominant; however it became less pronounced due to decreased rainfall variation. In the lower Ganges, the flood effect increased due to increased rainfall. In the Brahmaputra Basin, the drought effect increased due to increased rainfall variation. Non-stationarity in the rainfall–rice production relationship was caused mainly by changes in rainfall patterns; however the impact of other factors, including social factors, should be evaluated on a regional scale.

KEY WORDS: Rice cultivation · India · Bangladesh · Ganges · Brahmaputra · Non-stationarity