CR 56:51-60 (2013)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01134

ABSTRACT: It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity will have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase between 17 and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines and assuming the latter remains constant between now and 2085. The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities against the possible consequences of climate change.

KEY WORDS: Tropical cyclone · Climate change · Vulnerability · Philippines · Intensity increase · Housing damage