CR 66:113-123 (2015)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01338

ABSTRACT: This study considers observed and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) projected climate trends in Puerto Rico, with a focus on change maps and time series since 1980. The Hadley circulation has accelerated and sinking motions have warmed the lower atmosphere faster (+0.03°C yr^-1) than the underlying ocean (+0.01°C yr^-1). Increased evaporation and northerly winds are generating upward trends in rainfall on the Atlantic side of Puerto Rico, while the Caribbean side is drying. Global warming appears to enhance shallow clouds and vegetation, and inhibit deep convection around the island. The impact on natural resources appears limited, but rising sea levels will necessitate pro-active coastal management.

KEY WORDS: Puerto Rico · Climate trends · Rainfall change