MEPS 183:159-167 (1999)  -  doi:10.3354/meps183159

ABSTRACT: The fishery for Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic is subject to large inter-annual variability in recruitment strength. In this paper we attempt to build a predictive model using sea surface temperature (SST) to examine links between recruitment to the Falkland Islands fishery and environmental variability during the juvenile and adult life history stages. SST data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) were found to be comparable with near-surface data derived from in situ expendable bathy-thermograph (XBT) profiles in the southern Patagonian shelf. Variation in SST during the early life stages appears to be important in determining recruitment of I. argentinus. SST in the hatching grounds of the northern Patagonian shelf during the period of hatching (particularly June and July) was negatively correlated with catches in the fishery in the following season. SST anomaly data from positions in the Pacific and Southwest Atlantic were used to examine teleconnections between these areas. Links were seen at a lag of 2 yr between the Pacific and southern Patagonian shelf, and at about 5 yr between the Pacific and northern Patagonian shelf. This is consistent with SST anomalies associated with El Niño in the Pacific propagating around the globe via the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). Predicting cold events via teleconnections between SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic would appear to have the potential to predict the recruitment strength of I. argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.

KEY WORDS: Squid fishery · South Atlantic · Illex argentinus · Oceanography · Recruitment · El Niño · Teleconnections