Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems

Kenneth A. Rose; Kirstin Holsman; Janet A. Nye; Emily H. Markowitz; Thomás N. S. Banha; Nina Bednarek; Juan Bueno-Pardo; David Deslauriers; Elizabeth A. Fulton; Klaus B. Huebert; Martin Huret; Shin-ichi Ito; Stefan Koenigstein; Lingbo Li; Hassan Moustahfid; Barbara A. Muhling; Philipp Neubauer; José Ricardo Paula; Elizabeth C. Siddon; Morten D. Skogen; Paul D. Spencer; P. Daniel van Denderen; Gro I. van der Meeren; Myron A. Peck

doi:10.3354/meps14535

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MEPS 732:193-221 (2024) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14535

REVIEW
Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems

Kenneth A. Rose^1,*, Kirstin Holsman², Janet A. Nye³, Emily H. Markowitz², Thomás N. S. Banha⁴, Nina Bednaršek^5,26, Juan Bueno-Pardo⁶, David Deslauriers⁷, Elizabeth A. Fulton⁸, Klaus B. Huebert⁹, Martin Huret¹⁰, Shin-ichi Ito¹¹, Stefan Koenigstein^12,13, Lingbo Li¹⁴, Hassan Moustahfid¹⁵, Barbara A. Muhling^12,13, Philipp Neubauer¹⁶, José Ricardo Paula^17,18,19, Elizabeth C. Siddon²⁰, Morten D. Skogen²¹, Paul D. Spencer², P. Daniel van Denderen²², Gro I. van der Meeren²³, Myron A. Peck^24,25

¹Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 2020 Horns Point Road, Cambridge, MD 21613, USA
²NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Seattle, WA 98115, USA
³Earth, Marine and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 3431 Arendell Street, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA
⁴Centro de Biologia Marinha, Universidade de São Paulo, São Sebastião, SP 11612109, Brazil
⁵Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center 2030 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA
⁶Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Future Oceans Lab, Lagoas-Marcosende, 36310 Vigo, Spain
⁷Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 310 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, Quebec G5L 3A1, Canada
⁸CSIRO Environment, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
⁹CSS, Inc., 2750 Prosperity Avenue, Fairfax, VA 22031, USA
¹⁰DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), IFREMER, INRAE, Institut Agro, Pointe Du Diable, 29280 Plouzané, France
¹¹Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
¹²Institute of Marine Sciences/NOAA Fisheries Collaborative Program, University of California Santa Cruz, 156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
¹³NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
¹⁴Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, 1 Challenger Drive, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada
¹⁵NOAA, US Integrated Ocean Observing System, 1315 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
¹⁶Dragonfly Data Science, PO Box 27535, Wellington 6141, New Zealand
¹⁷MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET - Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais, Portugal
¹⁸Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
¹⁹Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Kāne‘ohe, HI 96744, USA
²⁰NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories, 17109 Pt. Lena Loop Road, Juneau, AK 99801, USA
²¹Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870 Nordnes, 5817 Bergen, Norway
²²Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kemitorvet Building 202, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
²³Institute of Marine Research, Austevoll Research Station, Sauganeset 16, 5392 Storebø, Norway
²⁴Department of Coastal Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, PO Box 59, 1790 Den Burg (Texel), The Netherlands
²⁵Marine Animal Ecology Group, Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 HB Wageningen, The Netherlands
²⁶Jozef Stefan Institute, Department of Environmental Sciences, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

*Corresponding author: krose@umces.edu

ABSTRACT: Climate change has rapidly altered marine ecosystems and is expected to continue to push systems and species beyond historical baselines into novel conditions. Projecting responses of organisms and populations to these novel environmental conditions often requires extrapolations beyond observed conditions, challenging the predictive limits of statistical modeling capabilities. Bioenergetics modeling provides the mechanistic basis for projecting climate change effects on marine living resources in novel conditions, has a long history of development, and has been applied widely to fish and other taxa. We provide our perspective on 4 opportunities that will advance the ability of bioenergetics-based models to depict changes in the productivity and distribution of fishes and other marine organisms, leading to more robust projections of climate impacts. These are (1) improved depiction of bioenergetics processes to derive realistic individual-level response(s) to complex changes in environmental conditions, (2) innovations in scaling individual-level bioenergetics to project responses at the population and food web levels, (3) more realistic coupling between spatial dynamics and bioenergetics to better represent the local- to regional-scale differences in the effects of climate change on the spatial distributions of organisms, and (4) innovations in model validation to ensure that the next generation of bioenergetics-based models can be used with known and sufficient confidence. Our focus on specific opportunities will enable critical advancements in bioenergetics modeling and position the modeling community to make more accurate and robust projections of the effects of climate change on individuals, populations, food webs, and ecosystems.

KEY WORDS: Bioenergetics · Modeling · Climate change · Fish · Projections · Challenges · Agent-based

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Cite this article as: Rose KA, Holsman K, Nye JA, Markowitz EH and others (2024) Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 732:193-221. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14535

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MEPS 732:193-221 (2024) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14535

REVIEW Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems

REVIEW
Advancing bioenergetics-based modeling to improve climate change projections of marine ecosystems