MEPS 751:133-152 (2024)  -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14772

ABSTRACT: Chub mackerel Scomber japonicus (subsequently referred to as mackerel), a commercially important small pelagic fish in Korea, is highly sensitive to environmental changes and has shifted its spatial distribution owing to climate change in recent decades. This study examined projected changes in the seasonal potential distribution of mackerel in Korean waters in the 2050s. Three species distribution models—a maximum entropy model, a generalised additive model, and boosted regression trees—were fitted using mackerel presence and 5 skillful environmental variables (temperature, salinity, current velocity, and chlorophyll concentration at the surface, and mixed layer depth) over 18 yr (1998-2015) and projected under 3 CMIP6 future scenarios. The distribution models projected future changes in mackerel habitat with high seasonal and regional variability. Mackerel habitat was projected to increase by 13.35-42.01% throughout the year in the East Sea and decrease by up to 12.73% in the northern East China Sea and by 5.28-20.93% in the Yellow Sea in spring and summer. The habitat gains and losses of mackerel were mainly driven by the predicted temperature increases and salinity decreases. The habitat contraction in spawning areas—mainly in the Yellow and northern East China Seas—contributes to the loss of spawning habitats, which could considerably change the abundance and timing of spawning and, in turn, fisheries productivity. Our findings suggest that future changes in the seasonal potential distribution of mackerel and their potential impacts on fishing communities should be considered to effectively plan future management strategies, particularly for environmentally sensitive species such as mackerel.

KEY WORDS: Chub mackerel · Scomber japonicus · Habitat distribution · Climate change · Future projection · Korean waters · Species distribution model · CMIP6

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Cite this article as: Bang M, Sohn D, Kim JJ, Choi W and others (2024) Projected changes in seasonal potential distribution of chub mackerel Scomber japonicus under continued ocean warming in Korean waters. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 751:133-152. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14772 Export citation Share:    Facebook - - linkedIn