MEPS prepress abstract   -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14778

ABSTRACT: The presence of invasive species is a growing concern in coastal marine ecosystems because of their adverse effects on biodiversity. The European green crab Carcinus maenas (EGC) is a small crab inhabiting inshore areas. Although it is native to the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea, its distribution has expanded to North America, where it is an invasive species. Its main food sources are small invertebrate species that support valuable fisheries in the USA. The first presence of EGC was observed in northern Washington around 20 yr ago, along the Pacific Coast of the USA. Recently, EGC has been detected throughout the Salish Sea (Washington, USA, and British Columbia, Canada) wherein spread dynamics are unknown. The overall distribution of EGC is mainly driven by larval dispersal and, in the Salish Sea, the assessment of EGC population dynamics is essential to understand its migration patterns and prevent its future expansion. To investigate the dispersal patterns of EGC larvae, a larval dispersal model was developed which couples a regional model of hydrodynamic circulation with an individual-based model of ichthyoplankton dynamics. Simulations were performed over 9 yr (2013–2022) to analyze average larval transport trends in the Salish Sea, interannual variability of EGC larval connectivity, and the influence of larval behavior on connectivity patterns. Lastly, areas were identified to inform invasive species management moving forward. The prediction of likely sources and settlement locations of EGC larvae from the model will help improve the management of the population in the Salish Sea.