MEPS prepress abstract   -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14805

ABSTRACT: Increasing attention has been devoted to understanding the responses of oyster populations to natural disasters such as hurricanes. In particular, the recruitment of planktonic oyster larvae is crucial to the recovery and sustainability of oyster populations, and, by extension, oyster fisheries. In this study, a bioenergetic model was developed to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of larval recruitment for the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) within the Galveston Bay System of Texas, USA. Further, model simulations were performed for a case study under post-hurricane (2018) and normal (2021) scenarios, aiming to elucidate the response mechanisms of oyster larvae to the hurricane disturbance. Our results demonstrate a strong post-hurricane recovery of planktonic oysters in 2018. Simulated larval recruitment was much higher in the middle-lower Galveston Bay and West Bay compared to the upper Galveston Bay and East Bay. By using simulation results, we further quantified the planktonic habitat suitability for oyster larvae to support future oyster management and restoration. This study contributes to the quantitative assessment of oyster resilience and adaptation in the face of the escalating threat of hurricanes amidst climate change and provides a framework for future coupling of an individual-based model with a biophysical model to enhance understanding of oyster larval dispersal and population connectivity.