MEPS prepress abstract   -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14811

ABSTRACT: Climate change is altering the marine environment at a global scale and these changes could affect the distribution and migration patterns of marine species throughout their annual cycle. Arctic regions are already experiencing some of the most dramatic changes in marine climate and there is a need for predictive models to understand how these changes could alter the spatio-temporal distributions of Arctic marine species. We used a species distribution model to predict potential future changes in the non-breeding distribution of thick-billed murres Uria lomvia from a colony in Hudson Bay, Canada, from 2021 to 2100 using three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios: low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions. Under the intermediate and high emissions scenarios, suitable habitat within Hudson Bay would become available year-round during the next century. This could lead to a portion of this migratory population becoming year-round residents within the next 80 years. We predicted a significant northward shift in the winter range, such that little or no habitat would be available below 55ºN by 2100. This shift would have significant implications for the murre harvest in Canada because the winter distribution would no longer include coastal Newfoundland where most harvesting occurs, particularly if murres from other colonies show a similar shift in distribution. Although there were projected changes in seasonal distributions under all three climate scenarios, dramatic re-distribution of non-breeding habitat could be avoided with policies that limit future emissions.