MEPS prepress abstract   -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14814

ABSTRACT: Climate change is modifying the biogeography of many marine species. Squid (Cephalopoda) are important species of the Antarctic pelagic ecosystem, one of the most affected areas by climate change at the global level. The scarce knowledge on potential species distribution shifts in the Southern Ocean and the importance of squids for its pelagic ecosystem highlight the need to characterize how climate change may affect the distribution of these cephalopods in the future. Here, we project future trends for the distribution of 15 squid species from the Southern Ocean, using Species Distribution Models (for the years 2050 and 2100) across two different scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). A decline in habitat suitability at lower latitudes was observed for most squids, with no concurrent habitat increase at higher latitudes, mainly due to increases in temperature and sea ice retreat. Nevertheless, while Antarctic and subantarctic squid are projected to experience decreases in habitat suitability, subtropical and cosmopolitan squid may experience increase. The squid Histioteuthis atlantica, Teuthowenia pelucida, Todarodes filippovae and Bathyteuthis abyssicola are candidate winners, while squid Onykia ingens, Onykia robsoni, Martialia hyadesi, Gonatus antarcticus, Histioteuthis eltaninae, Slozarczykovia circumantarctica, Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni, Alluroteuthis antarcticus, Galiteuthis glacialis, Psychroteuthis glacialis and (specially) Moroteuthopsis longimana could lose to climate change. These changes may entail substantial implications for the trophic ecology of the Southern Ocean. Furthermore, squid movement into new ecosystems may increase top-down pressure over lower trophic levels, adding to the abiotic pressures implicit to climate-change.