ESR prepress abstract   -  DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01393

ABSTRACT: Species potential habitat modeling and quality assessment are prerequisites for effective conservation of endangered animals. Animal species distribution is influenced by environmental variables such as topography, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance. In recent years, global environmental changes have led to shrinking ranges for a variety of species. This study synthesizes historical distribution records of 3 musk deer species (Moschus berezovskii, M. chrysogaster, and M. moschiferus) from the 1970s to the 2010s, utilizing multiple data sources to reconstruct their suitable distribution areas with BIOMOD2. We longitudinally analyzed historical distribution changes and employed FRAGSTATS to explore the relationship between habitat fragmentation and the contraction of suitable habitats. The results show that these species’ suitable habitats have decreased significantly over the past 50 yr (contraction rates: M. berezovskii 33.5%, M. chrysogaster 59.1%, and M. moschiferus 48.9%). Among the environmental variables, climatic td (continentality) and dd<18 (degree-days below 18°C, heating degree-days) were the main factors responsible for the distribution contraction of musk deer. Results show significant differences in patch characteristics between the contraction and non-contraction areas of M. berezovskii and M. moschiferus, suggesting that habitat fragmentation is another important cause of the reduced distribution. Therefore, we suggest that when conserving and managing musk deer populations, attention should be paid to increasing connectivity between existing suitable habitats and enhancing protection in areas of potential habitat fragmentation.